Response plan better bet than pet

Animals are often credited with superior senses that allow them to intuit danger — from atmospheric changes to storms, tornado and even earthquakes, stories of changes in the behavior of domestic animals, pets and wildlife abound.

It sure would be nice to have advance warning before the ground trembles, the walls shake violently, windows shatter and buildings crumble — but alas that’s not likely.

What is more likely is that an earthquake will hit with no notice and those within its reach will be caught completely off guard.

Those who live in earthquake-prone areas have a slight advantage — if you can call it that — in the fact they should be somewhat prepared and familiar with the risk, but even that isn’t always enough.

Take, for example, a report rolled out Wednesday by the U.S. Geological Survey, whose scientists are charged with studying the U.S. landscape.

Receiving a lot of attention, the report highlights concerns for the region surrounding the Hayward Fault, which extends through the San Francisco Bay area.

Evaluating the “hazard impacts, mitigation efforts and resiliency actions” for surrounding communities, the report looks at what would happen if a 7.0 earthquake were to happen along the fault, which it identifies as plausible. It also references a pattern of serious earthquakes happening along the fault line at average intervals of 150 years, with the last one happening 150 years ago — a fairly clear cautionary statement, and the closest to a warning we will probably get.

Earthquake hotspots such as California or Japan are fairly well known, but the fact is earthquakes can happen pretty much anywhere.

Even here in New Mexico — which, with the exception of its frequent dust storms, is not known for moving terra — earthquakes are a reality, albeit small-scale. The USGS has recorded 10 in the past 12 months, three since January.

Because of the speed with which an earthquake can hit and the devastation they can cause, humans are always looking for ways to predict them in advance.

Lore about animals predicting earthquakes far in advance of their occurrence is something that has existed for hundreds of years, with records of such tales told as far back as ancient Greece, when in 373 BC it’s said rats, weasels, centipedes and snakes fled several days before a particularly destructive earthquake.

Other stories of animal earthquake predictions include milk cows drying up, pets becoming restless or anxious, and as one later-disproven theory suggested, running away and causing occupancy booms at local animal shelters in the days before earthquakes.

However, based on a study by a German geologist, there is no scientific evidence to support the belief animals predict earthquakes.

Published April 17 in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, the article by Heiko Woith and a team of scientists details their review of 700 records with claimed animal precursors to 160 earthquakes.

Some reports were related to animal behavior changing minutes or seconds before, when they were likely feeling foreshocks, but the majority were anecdotal or retrospective, not meeting scientific rigor.

Even if animals were able to predict them by detecting advance signs such as gas releases or foreshocks, plenty of earthquakes happen spontaneously, which makes it impossible to predict them through technological or animal means, they stated.

As intriguing as it may be to believe animals have deeply mystical powers of danger detection, in the world of earthquakes, having a response plan will go a lot further than watching the dog or waiting for an exodus of wildlife.

Sharna Johnson is always searching for ponies. Contact her at: [email protected]