Forecasters: Watch for active tornadoes later

A February press release from AccuWeather focused on meteorologists predicting a slow start to the storm and tornado season -- which could lead to more severe weather conditions later this spring.

With El Nino weather conditions, the past few years have seen an early start to severe weather conditions; storms tend to begin in January. But with weather conditions now following a La Nina pattern, tornado season is expected to be delayed until April or May.

This delay could cause a more “active” weather season with a higher rate of tornadoes when the spring storm season finally hits, according to AccuWeather meteorologists.

“Despite the slow start to the season during late winter, recent clashes of the bitterly cold air accompanying cross-country winter storms and warmer air to the south have set the stage for destructive and even deadly tornadoes,” according to the release.

But local emergency management directors say it is too early to make that call.

“I rely on the National Weather Service out of Albuquerque for weather conditions, and they give weekly updates,” said City of Portales Emergency Management Director Antoinette Brezovsky. “Currently, it’s a little too early to predict whether we are going to have a little more active weather season.”

Brezovsky said if a more active weather season is to come, NWS is good about keeping local communities up to date and giving plenty of time to prepare. She said Roosevelt County is also fortunate to have efficient storm spotters. She said the area has tornadoes every year, but they are usually out in the county where they cause little to no harm.

“Before the tornado (in Dora in 2019) even formed and touched down, we had spotters out there watching it, who were able to respond immediately to any damage,” she said. “We have a lot of good storm spotters in Roosevelt County. The entire county works together on that. We can listen to the county fire channel and be kept up to date that way. We are actually really lucky as a county to have that storm spotter/firefighter interaction.”

“The weather is unpredictable. How it all works together, weather changes at the drop of a hat, so we get our briefings and try to prepare for what’s coming for that week,” added Roosevelt County Emergency Management Director Johnny Montiel.

Brezovsky said as far as residents being prepared for any weather events in the upcoming storm season, the best way for them to be prepared is to sign up for the local emergency system alerts. There are several ways to sign up for the alerts by visiting the Roosevelt County or city of Portales websites.

What area residents need to be wary of for now is a higher fire danger due to the dry weather conditions, according to Clovis firefighter Byron Dixon. He said fire conditions are currently yellow to orange, which is not the highest level of fire danger, but does indicate a high threat. Red conditions, the highest level of threat, would follow orange conditions.

“The chances of a fire based upon it being dry are great,” Dixon said, adding that any time there are winds pushing above 10 to 15 mph and something sparks, it is highly possible for a fire to start.

“All fire needs (to start) is something nice and dry,” Dixon said. “Wind-fed fires are probably some of the worst fires. People say it’s cold outside, things can’t catch fire. Even though it’s cold, it’s dry enough to sustain that combustion point.”

Dixon said all it takes to start a fire is fuel (debris or something else flammable), heat, and a little bit of friction, and if enough factors combine — friction, wind, etc. — it can cause other weather phenomenon, such as tornadoes.

“Wind does in fact cause those type of conditions, because the more wind you have, the more friction you have,” he said.

Dixon said residents can exercise the following precautions to help prevent fire dangers:

• Be mindful of the winds and the dry conditions on both sides of town

• Keep brush and trash away from your home

• Keep gates secure, particularly in windy conditions, to keep debris from flying around

• Keep your trash can covered to keep debris from blowing out

• Have an exit strategy from your home in case of a fire

“Make sure when you notice fire season is in full swing and that you don’t throw ashes outside, or if you go camping, watch for ash floating when you put out a fire,” Dixon said.