Serving Clovis, Portales and the Surrounding Communities
Serving Clovis, Portales and the Surrounding Communities
Rising inflation and an insecure minerals supply chain are threatening to disrupt the development of green energy technologies and hamper the production of renewables and electric cars. Some energy experts are warning that deeply constrained supplies of energy transition metals, like lithium and nickel or even copper, could derail the deployment of emissions-free energy and transportation technologies and hamstring our efforts to prevent the worst effects from climate change.
That alarming warning is worth pondering in the wake of international efforts to reach an accord on global warming. The data on the surging demand for the minerals and metals of the energy transition is irrefutable.
For some key metals, like lithium, global demand is expected to jump 100-fold by 2050. Yet, many U.S. environmental groups remain opposed to investment in new domestic mines and want tighter regulations on mining of minerals and metals. Almost from the beginning, efforts to increase production at existing mines and open new facilities were met with disdain from environmental activists who seemingly are fine with seeing these metals come from China, the Congo or other nations without nearly the same environmental or child labor protections.
The same environmentalists point to materials recycling as an answer but experts agree, you can’t recycle what doesn’t exist. Quite simply, recycling can’t work unless there are enough batteries already on the market. And electrifying the global car fleet will require a big increase in battery metals production.
The great materials disconnect — which sees governments and private industry all over the world financing enormous mineral demand without financing the supply — is sending us hurtling toward “greenflation.” As demand for these key material inputs continues to rise, so will prices and the knock-on effect will be rising — not falling prices — for key green technologies like lithium-ion batteries for EVs, solar panels and wind turbines.
The problems surrounding global supply chains is a big and growing problem, because as recently as last year the International Energy Agency projected that 150 million EVs would be on the road globally by 2030. But Steve LeVine, editor of The Electric and a widely respected energy analyst, forecasts that by 2030, automakers will be unable to immediately fulfill up to 35 million expected orders for EVs, because the materials needed to produce the batteries simply won’t be available.
Thanks to a particularly cumbersome mine permitting process and environmental opposition to the opening of any new mines, the U.S. is now in a particularly vulnerable position where these kinds of supply chain constraints could wreak havoc on U.S. automakers.
As greenflation pushes up the cost of minerals and metals, Chinese automakers will be in the driver’s seat. For decades, China’s government has worked in tandem with Chinese companies to purchase some of the best mines around the world, ramp up domestic production and centralize materials processing while the US and Europe stood idly by. Today, China possesses most of the world’s mining and processing capacity for battery metals and near-complete control of the solar supply chain.
When supply chain disruptions hit — and they will — it won’t be Chinese battery and auto manufacturers scrambling for inputs.
The urgency to build a secure, reliable materials supply chain is growing by the minute. The U.S. must work with close allies like Australia and Canada to expand supply but there’s no meeting this challenge without American mines. The minerals are here — the question is whether we can create a regulatory and policy environment to access them.
There are significant critical mineral resources all over the country. Lithium in Nevada, Arkansas, North Carolina, California and Maine. Nickel in Minnesota and Michigan. Even cobalt in Missouri and Idaho. Some of the largest untapped copper resources in the world also call the U.S. home. But accessing these resources — getting through a mine permitting process that regularly takes a decade or more and dealing with ever-present Nimbyism — remains far easier said than done.
All of this raises a serious question: Will Nimbyism and poor policy stall the Green revolution and push material supply chains into our competitors’ hands?
To my mind, the path forward begins with environmentalists realizing that the demand for minerals and metals will grow no matter what we do. Our country’s customary opposition to mining would make it grow badly, slowly, expensively, unsystematically, and with dangerously poor overall coordination. But if we encourage mining in the right way, we can build the reliable supply chains the energy transition demands, provide an engine for job creation and economic growth, and spur the climate progress this moment demands.
Jim Constantopoulos is a geology professor at Eastern New Mexico University. Contact him at:
