Professor: Russia invasion has local ramifications

After weeks of military buildup, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last week was not a surprise. But a Clovis Community College history professor who’s been following the issues closely said he is surprised by the strategy Russian President Vladimir Putin has employed.

“I’m surprised Putin was willing to launch a full-scale invasion,” Aaron Anderson said. “I thought he’d have a more incremental approach.”

The CCC instructor said last week that it’s well known Putin wants to reassemble the territory of the former Soviet Union.

“He’s been saying this for a long time,” Anderson said. “He has valued Ukraine over all other former territories.”

As explosions battered Ukraine on Thursday, grim-faced world leaders decried Putin’s decision to launch an unprovoked military invasion on a continent that many thought had long ago shaken off the scourge of war.

“President Putin of Russia has unleashed war in our European continent,” British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said in a somber video address.

“Innumerable missiles and bombs have been raining down on an entirely innocent population.”

Joining a chorus of leaders vowing to impose harsh economic sanctions on Russia, Johnson said it was incumbent on the rest of the world to come to the aid of a “country that for decades has enjoyed freedom and democracy and the right to choose its own destiny.”

“We, and the world, cannot allow that freedom just to be snuffed out,” he said.

In Europe in particular, officials expressed a worrisome sense that the Russian invasion posed threats far beyond Ukraine.

“What is at stake is the stability of Europe and the whole international order,” said Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Union’s executive arm.

Speaking at a joint news conference with the head of NATO, whose headquarters are also in Brussels, she said that the attack on Ukraine had helped unify the rest of Europe.

“We are more united and more determined than ever,” Von der Leyen said. “We are one union, one alliance, united in purpose.”

“This aggression cannot go unanswered,” U.S. President Joe Biden said late Thursday morning as he announced sanctions against Russia.

In offering perspective for the attack, Anderson said Ukraine was once part of the Soviet Union. “Putin believes the dissolution of the Soviet Union was an international catastrophe, a disaster for Russia as a global superpower.”

Anderson described Ukraine as a “borderlands” country, with deep history in terms of Russia itself, religion and politics.

Ukraine suffered greatly under Joseph Stalin, Soviet premier from 1922 to 1953.

“Not the entire territory of the Ukraine is the same political background,” Anderson said. “The eastern side of Ukraine has allegiance to Russia while the western part leans much more toward Europe.”

Anderson described the Putin directed invasion of Ukraine as a “risky gambit.”

“Putin doesn’t want the NATO Alliance at his border,” Anderson said.

How should the residents of eastern New Mexico and west Texas view this provocative military action on the other side of the world?

“This will have ramifications for us,” Anderson said. “We’ll have higher fuel prices and economic trouble.”

That view is shared by Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis with the Oil Price Information Service.

“I don’t think we’re necessarily looking at the fuel apocalypse,” Kloza said. “But we’re in for a few months of higher prices.” He predicted gas prices will rise above $4 per gallon.

Kloza said it’s possible the highest prices will come in the next 60 days, with prices easing toward the end of the year. Western states, where there is less refining capacity, will be hit hardest, he said.

“Right now, we’re going to get a little bit of a price shock,” Kloza said. “For the short term, you’re going to see noticeable increases in all sorts of fuel prices.”

Kloza said the gasoline price he worries most about is diesel because it can drive inflation.

Russia produces about 10 million barrels of crude a day, which European countries rely on. The United States doesn’t depend on Russian crude, although some Puget Sound refineries use it, Kloza said.

The Los Angeles Times and Chicago Tribune contributed to this report.