Commentary: Texas Tech confronts challenging reality

We interrupt the final days of the nearly nine-month preseason coronation of Joey McGuire as head football coach at Texas Tech with one fairly sobering thought:

The Red Raiders may not be very good. At least not this year.

McGuire, hired on Nov. 8, has seemingly led a parade for months that Tech fans have enthusiastically jumped aboard. He’s recruiting at a level not seen in Lubbock in a long time. He’s been a goodwill ambassador wherever he’s been.

He’s on the cover of Texas Football Magazine. Big money boosters are all in. In July, Tech announced extensive remodeling of the Jones AT&T Stadium south end zone and the addition of the Womble Training Center, all to the tune of a cool $200 million.

In some ways, it’s almost a shame the season has to start and a dose of reality sets in, but in three days, here we are.

What should be obvious fairly soon is this is still a rebuilding project, and McGuire’s force of personality can only do so much so soon.

The theme this summer, in looking at magazine and sports websites, is “Thank God for Kansas.” If not for the perennial cellar dweller of the 10-team Big 12, that preseason 10th-place spot would often belong to Tech.

Two summertime staples of college football magazines, Athlon’s and Lindy’s, picked Tech at ninth and eighth and both had the Raiders at 4-8. Ouch.

Texas Football forecast Tech as No. 8 in the conference, ahead of only Kansas and West Virginia with these words: “Excitement is high in Lubbock with the magnetic Joey McGuire taking over. Expecting more than a bowl and a middle-of-the-road finish in the Big 12 might be asking too much, however, in McGuire’s first year in charge of a college program.”

About the rosiest forecast came from The Athletic, national sports website. It pegged the Raiders at seventh place and 5-7. A bowl game? Very few are going there.

It’s a reminder of those gulping huge pitchers of McGuire kool-aid to tap the brakes a bit. This is a program that has not had a winning Big 12 record since 2009. Three coaches spanning 12 years have failed to get the Raiders on the plus-side in conference play.

Tech hasn’t been terrible, but it hasn’t been good. The Raiders are 71-77 in the last dozen years – the very definition of average. This isn’t basketball where one or two players can make a huge difference. Turning around a football program like Tech is like turning around the Queen Mary. It’s not quick nor easy.

There are two things working against Tech. One is the non-conference schedule and other is a key part of any team.

After what should be a win against Murray State on Saturday, Tech will not be favored by Las Vegas in any of the next five games: No. 24 Houston, No. 13 North Carolina State, Texas, Kansas State and No. 12 Oklahoma State. Just two are at home – Houston and Texas, which has beaten Tech six straight times in Lubbock.

Tech could actually play pretty well and be 1-5. That might take a little shine off things.

The other concern is an offensive line where inexperience and injuries should give anyone pause. Those units are usually overlooked until a team has a bad one and then it can’t be ignored.

Just two starters return. Transfers and inexperience fill in. The top lineman was expected to be Western Kentucky transfer Cole Spencer, but he has yet to recover from off-season knee surgery and may not play all year.

That could be a drag on a team that still has enough promise to wonder if analysts are missing something.

Only a handful of players from a 34-7 throttling of Mississippi State in the Liberty Bowl are gone.

Zach Kittley returns to his alma mater as offensive coordinator. His offense last year at Western Kentucky was second in the country in both scoring (44.2 points) and yards (535.3). Defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter was DC last year at Oregon. He has been a head coach at Fresno State. If nothing else, Tech should be better coached.

If the Raiders are going to prove the dire predictions wrong, they must avoid injuries, which they’ve seldom been able to do, and win one-score games. They are 8-12 in those the last four years. It wouldn’t hurt to win at home either. Once a tough place to play, Tech is only 10-23 in Lubbock in Big 12 play the last eight seasons.

Then again, how do you factor in the Joey McGuire Effect where good fortune usually follows? Some say he’s already controlling the weather. Highs for the first two home games, usually unbearably hot, are expected to be in the low 80s.

Probably a coincidence. Maybe.

Jon Mark Beilue is a 1981 graduate of Texas Tech. He has been writing about Red Raiders sports for five decades.