Opinion: War may have unintended results

The conflict in Ukraine continues to drag on. Regardless of how the conflict began or who was responsible for starting it, the fear remains that the war may get out of control, or may already be at that point.

Whatever happens, the war may very well have unintended consequences just as most wars do. One of these consequences may be the impoverishment of Europe for many years to come.

At the onset of the struggle, the strategy of the Collective West as explained by its leaders was to place various sanctions on Russia, including a ban on Russian oil and gas, with hoped for result that the “ruble would become rabble,” the Russian economy would collapse, and the Russian populace would rebel causing “regime change” in Russia. And Vladimir Putin would be replaced.

Over the course of the last six months, these hopes have not been met.

The specific sanction on Russian gas, exacerbated by the destruction of the Nord Stream Pipelines, has created major problems for those who imposed the sanctions.

The immediate challenge for European countries is the arrival of winter and the lack of necessary fossil fuel for heat and hot water in the homes of their citizens. Many countries are already discussing rolling blackouts and rationing of heating fuel.

The longer-term effects of the sanctions could be the complete deindustrialization of the German economy.

Both Nord Stream 1 and 2 ran from Russia to Germany and were put in place at the request of the Germans in an effort to obtain cheap, reliable energy for their industries.

Germany is, or maybe was, the manufacturing giant that drove the European economy. Without this cheap, reliable energy, German industry will no longer be competitive with other industrialists.

Finally, the loss of Nord Stream and the Russian gas if delivered will become catastrophic next year. There will be a winter after this one and there will still be no Russian gas available unless Russia and Turkey can increase Turk Stream Pipeline output. This will put the Turks in control of European gas, and the Europeans have had contentious relations with the Turks for years.

The entire European economy could collapse. Who will be available to help bail them out of this disaster?

A. The European Union

B. Ukraine

C. The U.S.A.

D. None of the above.

Of course, regime change did occur in the United Kingdom, so I guess part of the sanctions worked.

Rube Render is a former Clovis city commissioner and former chair of the Curry County Republican Party. Contact him:

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