Commentary: Fourth-down gambles are a mixed bag

When it’s fourth down in the second halves of tight games, most fans will cup their hands and shout, “Go! Go!” to normally too-conservative coaches.

At Texas Tech, with a head coach who seems to have overdosed on analytics, it sounds the same, but means something else: “No! No!”

The Red Raiders had another fourth-quarter fade on the road Saturday at No. 7 TCU, seeing a 17-13 lead snowed under by three consecutive Frogs touchdowns before ultimately falling, 34-24, in a game that was winnable until it wasn’t.

Tech’s chances of an upset turned on two bad calls – one by an official and another by Tech coach Joey McGuire. The Red Raiders are not yet good enough to overcome both as TCU earned its fourth come-from-behind win to stay unbeaten at 9-0.

Late in the third quarter, Tech’s defense had more than held its own against a Frog offense ranked No. 4 in the country at 43.1 points a game. The Raiders had kept the explosive TCU offense out of the end zone. Quarterback Max Duggan had been sacked four times.

On second-and-10 from the TCU 34, Tech defensive end Tyree Wilson sacked Duggan for a 4-yard loss. Wilson, however, was flagged for grabbing Dugan’s facemask. Replays showed Wilson’s hand never left Duggan’s shoulder. The force of his grab caused Duggan’s head to react like he had been yanked by the facemask.

Instead of third-and-14 from the TCU 30, it was new life with a first down at the TCU 49. Tech would be flagged twice more on the drive that the Frogs eventually took a 20-17 lead on a Kendre Miller 2-yard run with 13:25 left.

Still plenty of time left. Then analytics reared its head. Baseball is overwhelmed now by a subculture whose strategies challenge the conventional norms. It has bled into football.

“Analytics” is a buzzword for statistical data that think-tanks gather – and teams pay for – that are for coaches to make better strategic decisions based on probability. Much of that has to do with fourth downs, and whether to punt, kick a field goal or try to get the first down.

McGuire is far from the only coach to worship at the altar of analytics. To no one’s surprise, the results have been mixed.

There’s the good: Tech 34, Texas 31. In that game, the Raiders were 6 of 8 on fourth down and don’t win without those conversions. In a 48-10 mauling of West Virginia, it was 6 of 7.

Against TCU, twice Tech converted on fourth downs on a drive that ended with Tyler Shough throwing a 33-yard touchdown pass to J.J. Sparkman to give the Raiders a 17-13 lead.

The bad: Trailing 20-17, Tech gambled on fourth-and-2 at its own 36 with more than 12 minutes left. Six-foot-5, 230-pound Donovan Smith came in at QB. He was stuffed for a 2-yard loss and TCU turned that short field into a touchdown and a 27-17 lead.

Really? The call seemed reckless. The risk was not worth the reward. A first down, OK, the ball is now on the 37. Risk is putting the defense in dire straits. There’s 12 minutes left, it’s a 3-point game, punt and pin TCU around its own 20. Live to play another offensive series.

“I will tell you in the headset, I second-guessed myself,” McGuire said Monday. “I said, ‘Let’s punt the ball.’ Then, ‘No, go, go, go.’ I felt like we had a good play. That’s on me.”

Yet another fourth down failed a few minutes later when, needing four yards, Shough’s pass fell incomplete at the Tech 46. The Frogs converted that into another touchdown. 34-17 – game, set, match.

Earlier in the year, a fourth-and-8 at the Tech 35 on the second play of the fourth quarter failed on an incomplete pass when the Raiders trailed North Carolina State, 20-7. Next play, touchdown pass, 27-7, and say good night.

At Kansas State, Tech was still very much in this one, trailing 27-20 with 11:43 to play. On fourth-and-5 at its own 40, a pass fell incomplete. KSU turned that into a field goal on the way to a 37-28 win.

I like a coach who leans aggressively, but McGuire often leans recklessly. I’ve been told you have to be all in to make analytics work for you. Whatever. If anyone is looking for an underlying factor in Tech’s five losses, it’s being outscored, 73-22, in the fourth quarter and failed fourth downs contributed mightily.

Does analytics factor the talent on both sides of the ball? Does it factor the feel of a game? Tech’s best and most experienced players are on defense. Lean into that a little more than inexperienced quarterbacks, a struggling offensive line, average wide receivers – especially when it’s a 3-point game and 12 minutes to play.

Analytics and fourth-down gambles are like hitting on a 17 in blackjack. When it works, it’s a gutsy no-fear move. When it doesn’t, it’s “What were you thinking?”

Maybe McGuire softens on his analytics stance, maybe not. With that are always going to be mixed results. Currently he’s wedded to it. So best to remember part of the marriage vows: “For better, for worse, for richer, for poorer…”

Jon Mark Beilue is a 1981 graduate of Texas Tech. He has been writing about Red Raiders sports for five decades.