Opinion: Predictions for winners in 2023

My early predictions for the winners in 2023:

USA

Whoever decided to destroy the Nord Stream pipelines created what Secretary of State Anthony Blinken described as a “tremendous opportunity.”

Blinken was correct in his assumption.

Without Russian gas, Europe turned to the U.S. to provide Liquid Natural Gas. The U.S. was happy to provide LNG to Europe at a cost 6 times what they had been paying for it. Additionally, the Inflation Reduction Act provided subsidies for any industry moving from Europe to the U.S.

American industry, lost over the last few decades, won’t return and they have found a way to replace it at the expense of the European Union. Nord Stream was serendipitous for the U.S.

Turkey

With the destruction of Nord Stream, relations between Russia and the EU became more strained, with diminished trust on both sides.

At one point, the Russians considered the possibility of repairing the pipeline, but then decided that they would rather create a new Turk Stream pipeline from Russia to Turkey. The Turks who have been trying to get into the European Union for the last 30 years will now control energy flow to the EU.

Russia

Economic sanctions on Russia were going to be the “shock and awe” that toppled the Russian economy. The Collective West considered Russia no more than a gas station for the EU. They never considered the commodities that Russia controlled, including food, fertilizer and minerals.

The Russian economy dipped but then stabilized. Inflation is down, the ruble is steady and ahead of where it started in February. Militarily, it’s been said by one analyst that, “Ukraine will run out of targets before Russia runs out of missiles.”

Poland

One potential winner of the Ukraine conflict is the Poles. They are making noises about the fact that the two countries have a long-shared history.

Some of Western Ukraine was part of the Polish state for several centuries, and some constituencies in Poland would like to have it back.

Ukraine

In spite of a cratering economy, rolling blackouts across the country, massive attacks of missiles and drones on their energy and transportation sectors, Ukraine, with the help of the western press, is winning the propaganda war. Ukraine is still dominating and driving world policy.

Rube Render is a former Clovis city commissioner and former chair of the Curry County Republican Party. Contact him:

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