Serving Clovis, Portales and the Surrounding Communities
Serving Clovis, Portales and the Surrounding Communities
The only people who believe Russia is winning the war are a smattering of retired U.S. military officers, retired CIA analysts, assorted writers of opinion columns and the Russian government.
The chairman of Russia’s Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Defense Chief Sergei Shoigu, speaking at different times, recently noted that Russia is not interested in a negotiated settlement with Ukraine.
Volodin’s statement, “Ukraine must surrender on Moscow’s terms or the country will cease to exist”, was echoed by Lavrov and Shoigu.
Russia is sending a very clear message to the West.
What will happen when the West finally realizes that Ukraine is on the precipice of total capitulation?
Ukraine is now entering a declining phase, and we are at a dangerous period of heightened risk. Some self-styled national security genius or U.S. senator could propose a boots-on-the ground intervention plan that might save Ukraine.
The recently released U.S. Army War College paper, “A Call to Action: Lessons from Ukraine for the Future Force,” by Katie Crombe and John A. Nagl, should be required reading for those with such objectives. It’s a lengthy read, but I call your attention to one particular passage:
“The Russia-Ukraine War is exposing significant vulnerabilities in the Army’s strategic personnel depth and ability to withstand and replace casualties. Army theater medical planes may anticipate a sustained rate of roughly 3,600 casualties per day, ranging from those killed in action to those wounded in action or suffering disease or other non-battle injuries.
“With a 25 percent predicted replacement rate, the personnel system will require 800 new personnel each day. For context the U.S. sustained about 50,000 casualties in two decades of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. In large-scale combat operations, the United States could experience that same number of casualties in two weeks.”
The above figures indicate what the War College likely believes Ukraine’s true daily casualty rate to be, including all total wounded. Of far more significance, however, is the figure of 800 new personnel per day needed as a result of combat losses. Currently, no military service is meeting their recruiting goals. There is no way that our “all-volunteer force” could deliver this needed manpower. The implications of this are disturbing to say the least. Could the military draft be returning?
Rube Render is a former Clovis city commissioner and former chair of the Curry County Republican Party. Contact him:
