Commentary: Has Tech found formula for success?

The question is not, what if this offensive game plan had been in place at the start of the season? Those are losses under the bridge. The question is, can this balanced Texas Tech offense and solid defense lead to a turnaround season?

The plan that was on display the week before – a 21-point win over Houston – was front and center again on Saturday in a 39-14 win at Baylor. Pound the football with Tahj Brooks, and use the threat of a new-found run game to pass less frequently, but more effectively.

And it sure doesn’t hurt to have a defense that has now allowed just one touchdown in its last six quarters.

The Red Raiders have begun to pick themselves off the canvas after losing three of their first four games. That slow 1-3 start forced some introspection that has led to some needed change in philosophy as the Raiders won their second Big 12 game in a row by 20-plus points.

Daddy is on the horizon though this weekend. Kansas State has owned Tech like no team in the Big 12 and they meet in three days in Lubbock. Certainly the Raiders will stay with what has worked against a tougher and desperate opponent.

Brooks remains the focal point of what can be said now is a run-first offense. He was a side piece earlier – 11 carries at Wyoming, just seven carries against Oregon despite averaging 10.1 yards an attempt, and two first-half carries at West Virginia.

The 5-10, 230-pound senior had 22 carries in the second half at West Virginia, and it looks like offensive coordinator Wes Kittley saw the future. Brooks had 22 for 106 in a 49-28 win over Houston, and at Baylor, became a workhorse. It was 31 carries for 170 yards, nearly 100 in the first half.

Quarterback Behren Morton, still nursing a tender throwing shoulder, passed just 26 times, but he completed 19 for 180 yards and three touchdowns. He had a QBR rating of 161.6, which is outstanding. He threw a modest 22 times against Houston.

Last year, Kittley’s quarterbacks averaged 44 attempts. The previous year at Western Kentucky, quarterback Bailey Zappe threw almost 50 times a game. Kittley learned at the knee of the Air Raid, and may be going through withdrawals and the shakes in throwing about half that amount, but it’s playing to an offense’s strengths.

It’s one that’s viable when the defense has been stout. A young secondary, sometimes playing three freshmen, has at times appeared vulnerable, but the front seven that is starting to get healthy has been tough against the run.

Baylor has fallen off a cliff since winning the 2021 Big 12 title. The Bears are 2-4 and probably worse than that. Tech dominated up front. Linebacker Jessiah Pierre returned from injury for six tackles. There was a Steve Linton sighting with three sacks of quarterback Blake Shapen. Linebacker Ben Roberts, playing for the injured Jacob Rodriguez, had a team-high seven stops.

Baylor running backs had 18 carries for 38 yards – 2.1 yards an attempt. Shapen was sacked six times and hurried more than that. The Bears were 1 of 6 on fourth down.

Baylor’s only touchdown was on a busted assignment – a 71-yard pass from Shapen to Monaray Baldwin. The Raiders have allowed just one touchdown in their last 1 ½ games. Not a bad stretch.

The win was significant and not just because Tech coach Joey McGuire was a Baylor assistant for 4 ½ years. While the Raiders flipped the script on a 45-17 Bears win last year in Lubbock, Tech also got a rare road win.

Under McGuire, the Raiders were just 1-6 on an opponent’s home field before Saturday. It wasn’t a last-second field goal either, but the 25-point road win was the largest over a Big 12 team not named Kansas since a 58-28 win over Kansas State in 2008.

Yes, about Kansas State. The Wildcats come to Lubbock this weekend. This means Tech will face the last two Big 12 champions back to back. They too are a bit down, but by no means as much as Baylor and they’re smarting after a 29-21 upset from Oklahoma State.

No team has dominated Tech like K-State. Not Texas, not Oklahoma, not Oklahoma State. Since the Raiders rolled the Wildcats 58-28 in 2008 and then again 66-14 in 2009, Tech has won exactly once since.

The Raiders’ lone win was in 2015. They have lost 10 of their last 11. They’ve lost by a lot – 55-24 – and a little – three by three points or less, including 25-24 in 2021 in which Matt Wells was fired the next day. They’ve lost in cold weather and warm, lost at night and day. Bottom line – they’ve just lost.

K-State in many ways has been the anti-Tech. The Wildcats make fewer mistakes and penalties, make plays in crunch time, balance the offense and are strong in special teams. They get about all out of their talent.

Once again, Tech has a good chance to halt the domination, especially if the Raiders stick to what has been good to them. But they’ve had good chances before.

The season may really have turned if they can beat a yearly nemesis.

Jon Mark Beilue writes about regional sports for The Eastern New Mexico News.