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Opinion: Reality check needed on super weapons

In his blog, Dances With Bears, John Helmer writes, “In war, exaggeration is a killer. In the media, exaggeration is a bestseller.”

The corollary to this is, “In war, it’s OK to BS everybody else, but don’t BS yourself.”

Hellmer goes on to note that in Ukraine, the “war fighters” believe that just one more brilliant operation carried out with derring-do by special operators can snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

Let’s look at one of the super weapons that were supposed to change the course of the war in Ukraine.

Patriot is an acronym for Phased Array Tracking Radar to Intercept on Target. In May of 2023, the Associated Press reported that the U.S. Army had 15 Patriot battalions. Each battalion consists of four batteries.

News reports speak of Ukraine asking for as many as 100-plus Patriot systems, and I believe that one system means one battery.

If you start to research Patriot systems, you find that each Patriot battery has: a truck-mounted launching system with eight launchers, which can hold up to four missile interceptors each. So, a full complement of Patriot missiles per battery is 32.

The battery itself is made up of: a radar system, a control system, generators, missile launchers, missiles and a motor transport section and has a contingent of about 90 soldiers.

The Motor T section will have trucks for the radar, launchers, fuel trucks etc.

All of these components must operate smoothly to perform the mission of shooting down incoming missiles. For example, if you are out of missiles, you are out of luck. The same holds true if the radar is down, or the launchers are down. To bring the system hard down, you only have to knock out one key component.

Patriot missiles are in short supply. Missile production at the end of 2023 had reached 500. The goal for 2024 is 550. Out of this 550, the U.S. has to supply not only its own needs for training, but also all to those allies who have Patriot systems, including Israel and Taiwan.

If the entire production run of 550 were sent to Ukraine, it would still be insufficient for their defense, as news reports indicate that the Russians are firing more than 4,000 missiles a year into Ukraine.

One more brilliant operation with one more super weapon, just won’t do it. Time for reality to rear its ugly head.

Rube Render is a former Clovis city commissioner and former chair of the Curry County Republican Party. Contact him:

[email protected]

 
 
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