Analysis: Can Lincoln Riley coach? USC needs answer

LOS ANGELES - The last time Los Angeles got a good look at Lincoln Riley, he was getting blown out by his biggest rival.

The last time USC fans watched Lincoln Riley in their backyard, he was getting embarrassed by a coach who didn't even want to be there.

The last time the Trojan family surrounded Lincoln Riley with real hope, he was humiliated in his biggest game of the year despite being carried by the eventual No. 1 pick in the NFL draft.

The last time Muleshoe native Lincoln Riley was in a game that really mattered, it was UCLA 38, USC 20, honeymoon done.

So what now?

Riley is stepping into the most difficult and defining season of his eight-year coaching career, and how he navigates it will ultimately determine the course of his future at a school that has thus far received scant return on its sizable investment.

No, his job is not in jeopardy. Put those rumors to rest. USC did not hand him full program control and $10 million a year just to fire him after three tries. Heck, even Lane Kiffin was given more than three seasons.

This season is not about Riley's job status, but about something perhaps equally as valuable to this former coaching prodigy.

This season is about his reputation.

And the seat under it is fiery hot.

Can Lincoln Riley coach? That is the question that will hover over the program from the Sept. 1 Louisiana State opener through the completion of USC's first Big Ten season.

After two years spent tutoring Caleb Williams while the rest of the program fell into disrepair, can Riley put down his playbook long enough to lead a program and curate a culture?

After two years of imitating Clay Helton - he is 19-8 after last winter's meaningless Holiday Bowl win against depleted Louisville - can he morph into something closer to Pete Carroll?

For the first time in his head coaching career, he doesn't have a future NFL star quarterback. Sure, he won with Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts and Caleb Williams ... but can he win with Miller Moss?

For the first time in his head coaching career, his defensive judgment was so questionable that he was essentially forced to fire coordinator and buddy Alex Grinch before the end of last season. He seemed to make the smart hire in UCLA's inexperienced D'Anton Lynn, but together can they make it work?

For the first time in his head coaching career, he is changing conferences, moving from the slick Pac-12 to the behemoth Big Ten. Can he rebuild a program into something bigger and stronger and better equipped to handle the smash mouth awaiting him on the other side of the country?

Finally, for the first time in his head coaching career, Riley is coming off a season with fewer than nine wins while leading a team with expectations outside the top 20. The Trojans aren't supposed to be great. But he's being paid enough to afford a $17 million Palos Verdes mansion, so they'd better be great. Thus the challenge.

Can Lincoln Riley coach? Your guess is as good as everybody else's.

"It's a process to get there," Riley said to reporters at the recent Big Ten media days. "Has my patience been tested by it? Hell yeah. No doubt. Like, every day. But my resolve hasn't been tested, my commitment to being here hasn't been tested. I know this is the right place. I know what this is going to be."

Ah, the process. Is anybody else growing weary of hearing Riley talk about the process? Is anybody else frustrated with hearing him promise what this program is going to be?

This is USC, the process shouldn't take three years, and whatever the Trojans are going to be, they should be already.

"There's just a bigger picture to what we're building here," Riley said. "I'm really focused on that. And I'm really confident in what we're doing and that we're doing it at the right place."

This bigger picture he always talks about ... at this point he shouldn't still be building it, but simply refining it. It's been wearisome hearing Riley constantly refer to USC's past as if he adopted a Pop Warner team and now wants credit for teaching the kids to block and tackle. The Trojans were still one of college football's historically elite programs when he arrived. He was charged with restoring the sort of championship ethos that has existed there for years. Instead, they've gone backward, and even the most revisionist of histories doesn't make that OK.

Here's hoping that this season, Riley can display a better grasp of where he's working.

Here's hoping he can be more involved in the Trojans' NIL money and more connected to the Trojan boosters.

There is a sense that, coming from the outside into a program with such high standards and lofty expectations, Lincoln Riley has struggled to handle it all.

At a certain point he has to figure this out or be known as nothing more than a quarterback whisperer biding time until his next gig.

That time is now.

Can Lincoln Riley coach?

We'll soon find out.