Commentary: Hard question needs to be asked

There’s an uncomfortable truth starting to emerge from Lubbock. It’s an idea that would have seemed absurd just 13 months ago, but one that might be picking up steam as the calendar turns to September, October and November.

It is this: Texas Tech head football coach Joey McGuire just may not be the guy, that he may not be the one to revive a long dormant Red Raider football program.

The great escape of Saturday night, a 52-51 overtime win over Abilene Christian in the 2024 season opener, has shaken a lot of Tech fans and donors who have a lot of experience at being shaken. But this one? This one feels different.

If people are willing to get honest and ask some tough questions about the Tech program, the first and hardest one is this: Is McGuire the right guy to lead it?

Year three is the usual benchmark to judge a coach, even more so in the transfer portal era where programs can be rebuilt at a faster clip. If that’s accurate, and it is more often than not, what occurred Saturday should cause fans to gulp.

Abilene Christian is an FCS team, a level below Tech and the 135 programs in the FBS, or major college, division. The Wildcats are just a decade removed from being in the Lone Star Conference and playing Eastern New Mexico and West Texas A&M.

Tech was a 32.5-point favorite. Remolded Jones AT&T Stadium was sold out with 60,000 in attendance and ready to party. What they saw instead was an ACU team, with multiple Tech transfers, outplay the Raiders for 3 ½ quarters. Not just outplay, but often making Tech look silly and exposed.

Former Tech third-string QB Maverick McIvor put on a show, completing 36 of 51 for 506 yards and three touchdowns and was seldom pressured. Receivers were wide open – and I mean wide open – most of the game. Former Tech receivers Trey Cleveland and Nehemiah Martinez combined for 14 catches for 219 yards. Highly motivated ACU had 615 yards, 76 yards more than the home team.

Former Tech defensive coordinator Keith Patterson, ACU’s head coach, and staff had its team much better prepared emotionally and schematically than the heavy favorites. A huge pat on the back for that effort for the Wildcats, who did everything but win. Only a failed two-point conversion in overtime prevented the biggest win in school history.

Despite a post-game bus accident in Lubbock that left two players, a coach and bus driver with minor injuries, ACU went back to Abilene rightfully feeling good about itself. Meanwhile for the home team…

The Raiders are bereft of experience in the secondary and in the defensive front, and the new guys were outplayed time and again. How did it get like this in year three, and how much better will it get?

This embarrassing opener follows a 2023 season that didn’t follow the script. After beating Ole Miss in the 2022 Texas Bowl and the arrow pointing up, the Raiders were a borderline preseason Top 25 team and McGuire boasted like his team was top 10. Nearly all bought in with dreams of 10 wins dancing in heads.

Then Tech blew a 17-0 lead at Wyoming to fall in double OT. That set the tone for a 6-6 season that was at best an uneven performance.

McGuire has mostly avoided criticism because Tech fans want so badly for this hire to work. He’s energetic and enthusiastic and preaches the West Texas gospel. He’s easy to like and get behind.

His recruiting classes in 2024 and 2023 were ranked No. 25 and No. 23 in the country. Finally, a head coach and staff that could recruit except the current 2025 class is now No. 53, and seems to be regressing to the mean of Tech’s history.

If that strength is negated, then a coach at Tech has to be good at developing players or there’s no chance. Tech is not going to get the 5-star recruits – actually the Raiders did get one, but freshman WR Micah Hudson barely played Saturday – so improving the hand a coach has is essential.

The jury is still deliberating if McGuire and staff can do that, but the returns are not promising. McGuire has never been a college head coach. It was 4 ½ seasons as a Baylor assistant that preceded a long and very successful tenure as a head coach at Cedar Hill High in the D-FW metroplex. Does that skill set transfer to the challenging job at Tech?

Snap judgments on first games can prove to be overreactions, and this one could be but the way Tech floundered defensively should give anyone pause. No one is calling for McGuire’s head, and he has at least through the 2025 season to make a case.

Is McGuire capable of turning around Tech? The answer is still to be determined, but at least the uncomfortable question should be asked.

Jon Mark Beilue writes about sports for The Eastern New Mexico News.