Opinion: Figures don't lie, but liars figure

I once read there should be a law that requires every economist who is asked a question to begin his answer with, “I don’t know, but….”. The same edict should apply to statisticians and opinion writers, especially those who claim to go by military analysts.

During wars, casualty numbers are hard to nail down because both sides lie about them. They do this for a number of reasons, primarily to maintain morale on their own side as well as to disguise losses from the enemy. When you read a casualty number from one side about the others’ losses, you would do well to take those numbers with a heavy dose of salt. The Ukraine conflict is no different.

Recent claims from NATO Sec. Gen. Mark Rutte, the Pentagon and the New York Times all fix the number of Russian casualties at 600,000. It’s been estimated that the wounded to dead ratio is around 3 to 1.

Three wounded for every one death. For 600,00, that breaks out to 150,000 killed in action and 450,000 wounded in action.

Mediazona is a Russian independent media outlet focused on Anti-Putinist opposition that does independent research into combat deaths. It estimates, using open-source data, that Russian deaths at the end of 2023 was 75,000. This would not be out of line with 150,000 KIAs currently.

Both sides periodically exchange their dead with the opposite side. We have hard numbers on these exchanges. The latest exchanges are:

May 31 exchange: 45 Russian bodies vs. 212 Ukrainian bodies.

June 14 exchange: 32 Russian bodies vs. 254 Ukrainian bodies.

Aug. 4 exchange: 38 Russian bodies vs. 250 Ukrainian bodies.

Oct. 18 exchange: 89 Russian bodies vs. 501 Ukrainian bodies.

This totals 204 Russian bodies vs. 1,217 Ukrainian bodies exchanged for about a 6 to 1 rate over the six-month period, favoring the Russians.

If you agree with the NATO Sec. Gen. and the NY Times that Russian KIAs are currently 150,000, it’s not unreasonable to extrapolate, using actual figures from the body count exchanges, that Ukraine KIAs would be six times that many over the slightly more than the 2 1/2-year war or a number around 900,000.

If I am returning six times more of your dead than you are returning my dead, is it safe to extrapolate that I am killing six times more of your troops than you are of mine?

Rube Render is a former Clovis city commissioner and former chair of the Curry County Republican Party. Contact him:

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